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We propose a new estimation procedure for general spatio-temporal point processes that include a self-exciting feature. Estimating spatio-temporal self-exciting point processes with observed data is challenging, partly because of the difficulty in computing and optimizing the likelihood function. To circumvent this challenge, we employ a Poisson cluster representation for spatio-temporal self-exciting point processes to simplify the likelihood function and develop a new estimation procedure called “clustering-then-estimation” (CTE), which integrates clustering algorithms with likelihood-based estimation methods. Compared with the widely used expectation-maximization (EM) method, our approach separates the cluster structure inference of the data from the model selection. This has the benefit of reducing the risk of model misspecification. Our approach is computationally more efficient because it does not need to recursively solve optimization problems, which would be needed for EM. We also present asymptotic statistical results for our approach as theoretical support. Experimental results on several synthetic and real data sets illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed CTE procedure. 

We investigate the problem of learning linear quadratic regulators (LQR) in a multi-task, heterogeneous, and model-free setting. We characterize the stability and personalization guarantees of a policy gradient-based (PG) model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) (Finn et al., 2017) approach for the LQR problem under different task-heterogeneity settings. We show that our MAML-LQR algorithm produces a stabilizing controller close to each task-specific optimal controller up to a task-heterogeneity bias in both model-based and model-free learning scenarios. Moreover, in the model-based setting, we show that such a controller is achieved with a linear convergence rate, which improves upon sub-linear rates from existing work. Our theoretical guarantees demonstrate that the learned controller can efficiently adapt to unseen LQR tasks.